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IMN Webinar Recap

Special Assets Webcast

Clark Street Capital participated in an outstanding webcast last week on Special Assets, organized by IMN.    Attached are the slides from the initial presentation, and you can watch the broadcast by clicking here.

We were most interested in the poll questions, which show some disconnect between the participants view of the economy and their own portfolios.   This falls into the “I love my Congresswoman but hate Congress” dichotomy.

In response to the following question, “What Shape do you Expect the Recovery Curve to Be,” only 3% of respondents answered a “V” shape recovery, while a “W” shape was the highest at 37%.    So the attendees were generally pessimistic on the state of the economy.

The vast majority see only a modest impact on the residential real estate prices.    We asked whether residential real estate prices will:

Increase (5-10%)   7.14%
Stay the Same 17.14%
Decrease (5-10%) 55.71%
Plummet (>10%) 19.52%

Only 20% of the respondents expect more than a 10% drop in prices, and everyone else sees a change under 10%. We then asked the respondents what percentage of COVID-19 modifications will become TDRs.

< 10%34.29%
11-20%42.38%
 21-30%16.19%
 > 30% 7.14%

Again, this is a modest projection.    The short answer though is no one really knows, as no one knows what a borrower looks like after the economy re-opens.   Some will see a permanent loss of customers, others will bounce back as if nothing happened.

All of the panelists did a great job and we received great feedback from the attendants.    Many said this was the best webinar they’ve attended on the topic of distressed real estate, which is likely to become a bigger topic in the months ahead.

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